Models of Hospital Acquired Infection
نویسنده
چکیده
This chapter will not dwell on how mathematical models are built, better covered elsewhere (Bailey, 1975; Renshaw, 1991; Scott & Smith, 1994; Coen, 2007). It will focus on the impact of mathematical models on the understanding of infections spread in hospitals and their control. Hospital Acquired Infections (HAIs) made their first appearance with the invention of hospitals, mostly associated with surgical operations carried out when germ theory and hand-hygiene were unheard of and post-surgical mortality could be as high as 90% (La Force, 1987). The invention of antibiotics reduced mortality, but subsequently led to the emergence of infections adapted to survival in the antimicrobial-rich hospital environment. An arms race ensued where the bacterium and the pharmacist are to this day fighting to outwit each other (Sneader, 2005). Bacteria like Meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Vancomycin-resistant Enterococci (VRE) were detected in UK hospitals as early as the 1960s (Stewart & Holt, 1962), but it was not until the mid 1990s that they ‘took off’ as a significant problem for hospital managers and inpatients (Austin & Anderson, 1999). If only 10% of adult HAI infections could be prevented, £93 million could be saved in England and Wales alone (Plowman et al., 1999).
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تاریخ انتشار 2012